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It has continued local market issuance, although this has become more costly, highlighting weaker monetary flexibility than peers where policy rate cuts have lowered borrowing costs. Uruguay's debt ratio rose the most in the 'BBB' category in the five years through , and its increase will again be among the largest in the category due to acute sensitivity to peso depreciation the stock of foreign-currency debt is large and the indexation of most peso-denominated debt to rising inflation. GDP grew just 0. This would amplify the policy trade-offs the government faces in its upcoming five-year budget.{/INSERTKEYS}{/PARAGRAPH} It has moved quickly on these pledges, cutting administrative expenses and submitting a bill of microeconomic reforms. However, a slower economic recovery, or longer-lasting spending pressures stemming from the crisis may make a larger adjustment necessary to achieve this. We estimate a 3pp-of-GDP improvement in the primary balance from March's deficit of 2. {PARAGRAPH}{INSERTKEYS}Risks to already challenging debt dynamics have risen. While this jump in debt primarily reflects an unexpected shock, structural spending overruns continue to contribute as well, highlighting risks captured in the Negative Outlook. Its institutional strength has been insufficient to arrest a deterioration in economic growth and rapid rise in public debt in recent years - trends reflected in the Negative Outlook on Uruguay's 'BBB-' sovereign rating. It has smoothly implemented measures to contain the virus and mitigate its economic impact, for example creating a Solidarity Fund to transparently channel emergency economic relief, partly funded by contributions from public employees and the agriculture sector. Uruguay's weak fiscal position reduces room for forceful fiscal stimulus to support a swift economic recovery. This scenario would provide a sterner test of the pledges of President Luis Lacalle Pou's government, which took office in March, for economic revitalisation and fiscal consolidation. The central government deficit rose to 5. Financial buffers and long-dated debt allow Uruguay to finance this deficit without urgently tapping global capital markets. Institutional strength and a developed welfare system could help Uruguay to contain the pandemic's economic damage relative to other Latin American sovereigns, as could better terms of trade the cost of imported oil has fallen more than prices of agricultural exports. Strong governance and social cohesion are evident in Uruguay's response. But stabilizing debt could require it to augment and accelerate fiscal consolidation plans, potentially via tax increases it previously had ruled out. Its "pre-financing" cash buffer has fallen in recent years, but Uruguay has begun to activate USD2. This weakness persisted into pre-crisis, with unemployment rising to a year high of We expect real GDP to contract by 3. Our projected debt increase in would use up Uruguay's fiscal headroom at its current rating, and the coronavirus shock may pose a more lasting setback to debt stabilization. However, Uruguay enters the crisis on a weak footing.